Incorporating political-feasibility concerns into the assessment of India's clean-air policies

•Clean-air policies in India have varying degrees of political feasibility•We assess how feasibility affects air-quality and climate impacts•We develop a policy tool to integrate environmental assessments Political is at the center air-pollution policymaking developing world, affecting both choices their implementation outcomes. Using as test case, we demonstrate considerations (e.g., public opinion, market structure, government capacity) can be incorporated into quantitative models for impact assessment. By examining wide range clean-air across electricity, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural sectors, find that with great potential mitigate air pollution feasibility. Because some lower-feasibility also co-reduce carbon emissions phasing out existing coal units), considering effects particularly important achieving objectives simultaneously. Political-feasibility concerns are real-world policymaking. Yet, these often not represented leading decision-support tools been used assessing policies' impacts. Focusing on India, political-feasibility scores basis market, institutional then incorporate evaluation impacts by using an integrated assessment model (GAINS-South Asia). We although substantial highly politically feasible replacing solid fuels cleaner households), others less banning waste burning). CO2 aerosols, simultaneously because its implications scale sequence. Air one health threats world. Exposure leads 6.7 million premature deaths every year, which half occur China India.1Murray C.J.L. Aravkin A.Y. Zheng P. Abbafati C. Abbas K.M. Abbasi-Kangevari M. Abd-Allah F. Abdelalim A. 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Even when technical governments unlikely fully implement if they lack capacity face strong opposition interest groups.16Aklin Urpelainen Renewables: Politics Energy Transition. For instance, introduced ban stubble burning 2015,17Yadav R.S. Stubble burning: problem environment, agriculture humans.DowntoEarth. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/agriculture/stubble-burning-a-problem-for-the-environment-agriculture-and-humans-64912Google law enforcement lax given no party willing crop-burning likely antagonize farming lobby.18Prakash Dolsak Delhi’s pollution: failure democratic governance.Glob. Asia. 14: 14-19https://www.globalasia.org/v14no4/cover/delhis-air-pollution-a-failure-of-democratic-governance_aseem-prakashnives-dol%C5%A1akGoogle Second, chosen first. prioritized initially later turned reducing consumption. This largely reduces while allowing continued dependence coal. former strategy caused disruption domestic groups than latter strategy, requires transition away coal.19He Lin Larangeira Enabling rapid just China.One Earth. 3: 187-194https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.012Abstract Yet ability Although good characterizing physical (such technology emissions) processes atmospheric transport chemistry processes), poor representing shape actual outcomes real Indeed, started add aspects,20Geels F.W. McMeekin Pfluger Socio-technical methodological explore social low-carbon transitions: bridging computer multi-level perspective UK electricity generation (2010-2050).Technol. Forecast. Soc. 151: 119258https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.001Crossref (38) Scholar,21Keppo Butnar Bauer Caspani Edelenbosch O. Emmerling Fragkos Guivarch Harmsen Lefèvre al.Exploring possibility space: taking stock diverse capabilities gaps models.Environ. 2021; 16: 053006https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8Crossref (20) but examples few. Bringing together team modelers scientists, contribute filling this gap adding modeling frameworks Our goal increase utility inform decisions. Here, use case. suffers worst 1.7 people die prematurely exposure indoor 2019.1Murray To toxic Indian launched National Program 2019, aiming 20%–30% (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm) PM10 concentration 2024 relative 2017 levels.22Government Ministry Environment, Forest ChangeGovernment launches national programme (NCAP).https://pib.gov.in/pressreleaseiframepage.aspx?prid=1559384Date: 2019Google At same time, player challenge. It already world's third largest GHG emitter, expected rapidly coming decades economy demand.23Dubash N.K. Khosla N.D. Bhardwaj India’s future: interpretive scenarios.Environ. 074018https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc74Crossref (31) Finally, India's “tough case” federal structure decentralized reforms proved difficult.24Jenkins Democratic Economic Reform India. 1999Google Lessons about applied other governance structures, Brazil Mexico Indonesia. Methodologically, (Political Policies [PACE-India]) following steps: (1)Use state-level Asia, available http://gains.iiasa.ac.at) project implementing 35 power, industry, sectors assuming maximum (see Note S1); select top 12 greatest further analysis.(2)Assess score each six key metrics related identified critical political-economy literature.(3)Re-assess adjusting plausible feasibility.(4)Compare different sequences prioritize considerations.(5)Identify desirable set achieve combinations targets.This Data S1 online database; steps 1 2 user-specified inputs, 3–5 model-calculated outputs. Among included our initial assessment, nationwide feasibility, summarized Table 1. Implementing realize 90% total S2 full list impacts). careful current goes beyond scope analysis, selection covers emitting hence providing useful information priority setting design.Table 1Twelve assessmentSectorAbbreviationDescriptionPowerPOW-1use incentives foster extended wind, solar, biomass bagasse, hydro phase least efficient plantsPOW-2introduce state-of-the-art plantsIndustryIND-1introduce particulate-matter large-scale industriesIND-2encourage centralized collection source separation treatment, including utilizationIND-3introduce industriesIND-4reduce process upgrading brick kilns modern technologiesTransportationTRA-1seal unpaved road surfaces fugitive dust roadsTRA-2enforce mandatory checks repairs vehiclesResidentialRES-1use LPG advanced stoves) cooking heatingRES-2strictly enforce bans open household wasteAgricultureAGR-1use urease inhibitors and/or substitute with, example, ammonium nitrate application fertilizerAGR-2strictly residuesFor information, see S1. Open table new tab few high government's agenda, supported series recent welfare policies, (1) Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), provides 80.34 liquefied petroleum (LPG) connections households25Bhaskar U. NDA surpasses targets, 80.33 connections. mint, September 9, 2019.https://www.livemint.com/news/india/nda-ujjwala-surpasses-targets-provides-80-33-million-lpg-connections-1568006076964.htmlDate: Scholar,26Bharatiya Janata PartySankalp patra (manifesto).https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/5798075/Bjp-Election-2019-Manifesto-English.pdfDate: (RES-1); (2) Swachh Bharat Mission, built 110 toilets between 2014 2019 end defecation26Bharatiya Scholar,27Langa Prime Minister Modi declares country defecation-free.The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-open-defecation-free-says-narendra-modi/article29576776.eceGoogle (RES-2); (3) eliminating crop-residue burning26Bharatiya (AGR-2); (4) scaling 175 GW 202226Bharatiya (POW-1). On literature, consider three dimensions (Table 2; details, experimental procedures): (1)Public opinion: public; here, metric evaluate whether directly borne public.(2)Market structure: easier it compatible structure; include measure degree concentration, presence organized interests.(3)Government capacity: yields better outcomes; two capacity, respectively.Table 2Six feasibilityPolitical-economy considerationsMetricsInterpretationRelevant literaturePublic opinionpopular oppositionwhen public, popular resistanceBenes al.,28Benes K. Cheon Low oil prices: opportunity fuel subsidy reform.https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/Fuel%20Subsidy%20Reform_October%202015.pdfDate: 2015Google al.,29Cheon Lackner Why do subsidize gasoline consumption? An empirical prices, 2002-2009.Energy 56: 382-390https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.075Crossref (36) Overland30Overland Subsidies change: comparative perspective.Int. Stud. 2010; 67: 303-317https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2010.492143Crossref (15) ScholarMarket structuremarket benefit costwhen affected industry expects implementation, less, respectively, industryBenes Busby Shidore,31Busby J.W. Shidore When decarbonization meets development: sectoral India.Energy 60-73https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.11.011Crossref (24) al.32Busby Gao Turning supertanker: change China.Energy 37: 198-210https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.09.003Crossref (8) Scholarmarket concentrationwhen characterized small number producers product lines, will collective-action perspectiveBusby al.,32Busby Olson,33Olson Logic Collective Action: Public Goods Theory Groups. Harvard 1965Google Mitchell34Mitchell R.B. International Politics. Sage, 2008Google Scholarorganized intereststhe group make difficult costs, respectivelyBenes Bernhagen,35Bernhagen business influence fifteen OECD countries.Environ. Plan. C Gov. 2012; 30: 362-380https://doi.org/10.1068/c11179bCrossref (7) Grossman Helpman36Grossman G.M. Helpman E. Special Interest 2001Google ScholarGovernment capacitygovernment authority rulemaking policy-implementation activities centralized, high, beneficial effective implementation; under state without coordination central government, medium low, respectivelyBusby Tsebelis37Tsebelis Veto Players: How Institutions Work. Russell Sage Foundation, 2002Crossref Scholarinstitutional capacitystronger improves policyBenes al.28Benes highlight issues metrics. work focus instead will. reflects level reform would generate. contrast, motivated carry reforms. such, should separated feasibility,38Meltsner A.J. analysis.Public Adm. Rev. 1972; 32: 859-867https://doi.org/10.2307/974646Crossref specifically stand-alone capture challenge even broad support. sufficient absence support, necessary success, especially where complicated. fit bill require financing, regulatory changes, coordination, time. understanding likelihood succeeds carrying emission-reducing note extent endogenous invest areas important.39Aklin Bayer Harish S.P. Escaping Poverty Trap: Governments Power Lives Poor. Capacity building complex lengthy process, however, pre-existing consideration rent seeking attributes literature does generate clear predictions rent-seeking feasibility.40Shleifer Vishny R.W. Corruption.Q. Econ. 1993; 108: 599-617https://doi.org/10.2307/2118402Crossref (2548) hand, detrimental takes form corruption undermines works. road-paving waste-management could compromised bribery allows low-quality contractors win bids. “grease wheels” motivate bureaucrats approve projects. paving infrastructure construction firms powerful local politicians expect rents it. projects might optimal cost effective, lead emission-reduction otherwise get through Given definite predictions, view area research. vary significantly ranging (Figure 1; procedures general meaning detailed justification policy). impose communities, agencies capacity. highest RES-1 (i.e., stoves heating) AGR-1 improve fertilizer practices) aspects scoring consistent relatively RES-1, massive program, PMUY